London 'to bear brunt' of recession - LGA » Communities » 24dash.com

London could bear the brunt of the recession while many of England's northern cities weather the storm, a report revealed today.

The construction and manufacturing industries will be hardest hit by the economic slump.

However, high skilled industries look set to remain relatively unscathed, the Local Government Association (LGA) said.

And the recent renaissance of the big northern cities has put them in a relatively well-placed position to cope with the effects of the recession.

Almost two in five jobs that could be at risk over the next two years are in London and the South East.

And even within individual regions there are marked differences between how local areas may fare.

The LGA's From Recession To Recovery: The Local Dimension Report projects how each area of the country could be affected differently by the economic downturn if no action is taken.

It is warning that a national, blanket policy to deal with the recession will be unable to target help effectively to specific areas.

The LGA, which represents councils in England, is calling for as many economic decisions as possible to be taken at a local level to ensure that local solutions can be found to local problems.

Councillor Margaret Eaton, chairman of the LGA, said: "Global problems have tipped the British economy into a recession that is affecting countries around the world.

"The Government has acted at international and national levels and councils are now taking a lead in the effort to find local solutions to local problems.

"From keeping people in their own homes and offering support to the unemployed, to helping small businesses stay afloat, councils are already acting.

"Councils will be pulling out all the stops over the coming months and years to protect local people and businesses from the worst effects of the slump."

Ms Eaton said the recession was going to hit different parts of the country in very different ways.

"It is clear that a national, one-size-fits-all approach to dealing with the recession simply isn't going to work," she said.

"The research shows that the fastest way to get out of recession is for more decisions about the economy to be taken at the local level, which means councils continuing to work with local people and businesses.

"These figures represent a wider picture of employment change, including retirements and unfilled posts.

"However, they also include people who could be made redundant and any loss of jobs has huge human cost with their own stories behind it.

"With greater freedoms over transport, infrastructure, planning, economic development and skills, councils would be able to do even more for local people.

"The tough times ahead will hit people throughout Britain. The response must be swift and effective if it is to protect people from the worst effects of an economic slowdown and make rapid progress towards recovery."

The report analysed the structure of each English region's economy, its performance over the last two years and its performance during the last two recessions. The reports projects that by December 2010 up to:

• 370,000 jobs could be lost in London (7.9% of all jobs in London)
• 170,000 in Yorkshire & Humberside (6.8% in that region)
• 230,000 in the North West (6.7%)
• 180,000 in the West Midlands (6.6%)
• 280,000 in the South East (6.3%)
• 130,000 in the East Midlands (6.0%)
• 170,000 in the East (6.0%)
• 70,000 in the North East (5.7%)
• 130,000 in the South West (5.1%)

The estimates are of net job losses. This means that more than 1.7 million jobs will cease to exist since some new jobs will be created during the period.

South East

The South East of England has the highest concentration of the industries which are likely to perform best - 38% of its jobs are to be found in these sectors. The SE performed slightly above average in the last recessions but below average in the last two years.

London

London has relatively few of the industries which are likely to perform the best but equally few of those that are likely to perform the worst. London performed poorly in the last two recessions and slightly below average in the last two years.

East Midlands

The East Midlands has a high proportion of industries which are likely to be affected by the recession (22%). The region performed relatively well in the last two recessions and above average in the last two years.

West Midlands

The West Midlands has a high proportion of industries which are likely to be affected by the recession (20%). The region performed averagely in the last two recessions but slightly above average in the last two years.

North East

The North East has a relatively high proportion of industries that are likely to perform the best. The North East fared averagely in the last two recessions and also performed better than any other region in the past two years.

South West

The South West has an average numbers of industries that are likely to perform well and perform badly. The region performed well in the last two recessions but slightly below average in the last two years.

Y&H has a high proportion of jobs which are likely to be affected by the recession (20%). The region performed averagely in the last two recessions and slightly below average in the last two years.

North West

The North West has an average numbers of industries that are likely to perform well and perform badly during the recession. The region performed relatively badly in the last two recessions and relatively badly in the last two years.

East

The East of England has a relatively high proportion of industries most likely to be affected by the recession. The region performed well in the last two recessions and well in the last two years.